How to Make Good Decisions Amongst Uncertainty: Aurelius, Lincoln & Munger on Clarity, Action, and Long-Term Thinking

personal995
Jul 3
7 min read

You’ll never have all the information.

You’ll never be completely sure.

The economy will shift.

People will change.

Unexpected problems will emerge.

And still, you have to decide.

Inaction is a decision.

So how do you decide well, when the path ahead is unclear?

Uncertainty isn’t a passing storm. It’s the normal weather of life.

We can resist or despise change or we can embrace it as: A chance to test ourselves. A chance to improve. A chance to practice better thinking. This is how we grow.

You don’t need perfect clarity to make a good decision. You need principles, patience, and practical tools.

Let's study those that can share with us these examples:

Marcus Aurelius: A Roman Emperor who ruled through war and plague.
Abraham Lincoln: A U.S. President navigating a divided nation.
Charlie Munger: A billionaire investor filtering signal from noise across decades.

What’s in this article?

Introducing Marcus Aurelius, Abraham Lincoln, and Charlie Munger
Marcus Aurelius: Control What You Can. Let Go of the Rest.
Abraham Lincoln: Think Deeply. Lead Calmly. Decide Slowly.
Charlie Munger: Use a Latticework of Mental Models
3 Actionable Practices for Making Decisions Under Uncertainty
Their Lessons Combined as One Method
To Summarise: Making Good Decisions Amongst Uncertainty
Member's Related Links & Readings

Introducing Marcus Aurelius, Abraham Lincoln, and Charlie Munger

Marcus Aurelius, was Emperor of Rome between 161 and 189 faced invasion, loss, and chaos. He lead through it with philosophical clarity and personal discipline.

Abraham Lincoln, was U.S. President between 1861 and 1865, during the Civil War. Lincoln made some of the most difficult decisions in American history, all while staying grounded in humility, reflection, and principle.

Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, spent his lifetime investing through volatile times. Steering through the volatility by leaning on rational thought and cross-disciplinary thinking.

Marcus Aurelius: Control What You Can. Let Go of the Rest.

Aurelius on decisions amongst uncertainty

Marcus Aurelius: Leadership Under Uncertainty

In the spring of 175 AD, the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius was stationed in a military camp near the Danube frontier. The Empire was under strain, foreign invasions in the north, famine and political instability at home, and the lingering effects of a devastating plague.

Rather than respond with public declarations or sweeping reforms, Marcus turned inward to focus his thoughts. These writings, later compiled as the book Meditations, were how he stayed clear-headed in uncertain times.

Aurelius trained himself to use a simple equation - Is this mine to act on or mine to accept?

If it was within his control, he acted. If it wasn’t, eg. disease, rumors, others’ opinions, he let it go.

Shortly after that spring, the test came.

A false rumor of Aurelius’ death led his trusted general, Avidius Cassius, to declare himself emperor in the eastern provinces. It could have led to civil war.

Aurelius didn’t react with panic or vengeance. He waited. Cassius was killed by his own men before any battle occurred. Aurelius then took his own family east, not to punish, but to restore order calmly. He refused to execute Cassius’s allies, ensured protection for Cassius’s wife and children, and even had incriminating documents destroyed, wanting no one else to suffer unnecessarily.

The rebellion dissolved. The Empire held.

Aurelius would return to the northern front, where he continued campaigning until his death in 180 AD, still writing, still reflecting. His steady leadership in those years helped keep the Empire intact during a period when it might easily have fractured.

“You have power over your mind, not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” Marcus Aurelius

Abraham Lincoln: Think Deeply. Lead Calmly. Decide Slowly.

Lincoln on decisions amongst uncertainty

Abraham Lincoln: Clarity Through Deliberation

In the autumn of 1862, Abraham Lincoln walked the halls of the White House alone. The Civil War was entering its second year. Casualties were mounting. Public opinion was divided. His cabinet was split. And the question of slavery, central but politically explosive, hung unresolved in the air.

Rather than respond with quick proclamations, Lincoln waited. He spent long nights reflecting, listening, and drafting what would become one of the most consequential documents in American history: the Emancipation Proclamation.

Lincoln had already written it. But he wouldn’t release it until the time was right.

He believed major decisions required two forms of courage, the strength to act, and the restraint to wait until action would do the most good.

That moment came only after the Union’s narrow and bloody victory at Antietam. With the momentum turned, Lincoln issued the proclamation. It did not end slavery immediately, but it redefined the war, transforming it into a fight for human freedom as well as national unity.

Lincoln’s decision-making style was not impulsive. It was deliberate.

He often wrote unsent letters to manage his own emotions. He surrounded himself with critics, including rivals he had defeated in the election. He invited dissent within his cabinet, listening fully before making his judgment. And once he did decide, he rarely reversed course.

His patient clarity helped steer the Union through its greatest crisis, and preserved the republic.

Lincoln would go on to guide the nation through another two and a half years of war before his assassination in April 1865. His legacy was not one of flawless decisions, but of thoughtful, principle-led leadership in an era defined by conflict.

“Be sure you put your feet in the right place. Then stand firm.” Abraham Lincoln

Charlie Munger: Use a Latticework of Mental Models

Charlie Munger: Thinking Clearly in Complex Conditions

In the late 20th century, as markets grew more volatile and financial decisions more speculative, Charlie Munger developed a method for seeing through noise. While many investors chased trends, forecasts, and shortcuts, Munger focused on something else - judgment.

He believed good decisions weren’t the result of luck or intuition, but of building a reliable process for thinking.

Over decades, Munger assembled what he called a latticework of mental models. Fundamental principles drawn from a wide range of disciplines: economics, psychology, engineering, history, and biology. Each model offered a different lens for evaluating problems, reducing error, and avoiding self-deception.

He didn’t try to predict the future. He aimed to be prepared for a range of possibilities.

When assessing an investment, for example, he wouldn’t just look at profits. He’d ask:

What are the incentives behind this behavior?
What’s the second-order consequence of this decision?
What would happen if we’re wrong?

Munger also insisted on inversion, solving problems backward. Instead of asking “How do we succeed?” he often asked, “How could this fail?” and worked to avoid those outcomes.

He believed the biggest threat to our sound judgment wasn’t just complexity, but bias. To guard against it, he read widely, thought slowly, and repeatedly challenged his own assumptions.

This approach made him Warren Buffett's right hand man and helped them to drive the long-term success of Berkshire Hathaway.

Munger remained Vice Chairman of the company into his late 90s, and continued speaking and writing about decision-making until his death in 2023.

Munger left us a lived example of clear, rational thinking in a world often clouded by noise.

“It’s not supposed to be easy. If it were easy, everyone would do it.” Charlie Munger

3 Actionable Practices for Making Decisions Under Uncertainty

Practice 1. Control What You Can (Marcus Aurelius)

Aurelius knew that emotion is the first thing to betray you in chaos. So he trained his mind to separate the externals (fate, events, people) from the internals (choice, character, action).

To him, a good decision wasn’t about outcomes, it was about aligning with reason, courage, and justice in the moment of choice.

Practice 2: Decide Slowly, Act Boldly (Abraham Lincoln)

Lincoln’s genius wasn’t in speed, it was in disciplined patience. He invited critics into his cabinet. He wrote angry letters he never sent. He watched the public mood and waited for the moment when a controversial action could land with strength.

His version of decision-making looked like delay. But it was actually preparation.

When the moment came, he acted decisively, because he had already wrestled with the consequences in advance.

Practice 3: Use Models, Not Moods (Charlie Munger)

Munger’s approach is deeply unromantic. But very effective. He didn’t guess. He filtered. He inverts problems. He asks, “What are the odds I’m wrong?”

He avoids the traps of urgency by building mental tools to slow himself down.

When others panic, he runs through his checklist:

What’s the second-order consequence?
What incentives are distorting behavior?
What’s the simplest explanation I might be ignoring?

Their Lessons Combined as One Method

Obviously, these men never met. They lived centuries apart. But if you stitched their wisdom together into a process for making decisions under uncertainty, it might look like this:

Slow down (Lincoln) – Don’t confuse speed with effectiveness.
Zoom out (Munger) – Apply timeless principles across disciplines.
Zoom in (Marcus) – Return to what’s in your hands right now.

Because ultimately, uncertainty isn’t an obstacle to good decisions. It’s the reason good decisions matter. You don’t make decisions after things become clear. You make decisions so that clarity can emerge.

To Summarise: Making Good Decisions Amongst Uncertainty

Marcus ruled an empire in collapse. Lincoln held a country together with words and will. Munger built generational wealth by seeing what others missed.

None had certainty, yet they each made many decisions amongst uncertainty.