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How to Make Good Decisions Amongst Uncertainty: Aurelius, Lincoln & Munger on Clarity, Action, and Long-Term Thinking

  • Jul 3, 2025
  • 6 min read

Updated: Mar 11

Journal of Scenarios → How to Make Good Decisions Amongst Uncertainty: Aurelius, Lincoln & Munger on Clarity, Action, and Long-Term Thinking





You’ll never have all the information.

You’ll never be completely sure.

The economy will shift.

People will change.

Unexpected problems will emerge.

And you still have to decide.


Inaction is a decision.

So how do you decide well, when the path ahead is unclear?




Uncertainty is life.

We can resist or despise change or we can embrace what is.

Embrace the Three Choices Framework, and see change as a chance to test ourselves.


A chance to improve. A chance to practice better thinking. This is how we grow.


You don’t need perfect clarity to make a good decision. You need principles, patience, and practical tools.


Three to consider studying are.


Marcus Aurelius

A Roman Emperor who ruled through war and plague.


Abraham Lincoln

A U.S. President navigating a divided nation.


Charlie Munger

A billionaire investor famous for filtering signal from noise across decades.





Index












Marcus Aurelius, Abraham Lincoln, and Charlie Munger



Marcus Aurelius

Was Emperor of Rome between 161 and 189 faced invasion, loss, and chaos. He lead empire, whilst also documenting his thoughts on philosophy and personal discipline.


Abraham Lincoln

Was U.S. President between 1861 and 1865, during the Civil War. Lincoln made some of the most difficult decisions in American history.


Charlie Munger

Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's right-hand man. Munger spent his lifetime studying how to consistently improve judgement and used investing as his practical vehicle. Berkshire Hathaway's record is unmatched.




Marcus Aurelius: Control What You Can. Let Go of the Rest.



In the spring of 175 AD, the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius was stationed in a military camp near the Danube frontier. The Empire was under strain, foreign invasions in the north, famine and political instability at home, and the lingering effects of a devastating plague.


To focus his thoughts Aurelius turned inward cleared his head and frequently documented notes and directions to himself. These writings were never meant for the public, but luckily for us all, they were later compiled as the book Meditations.


This is one of the most powerful humans of all time, dealing with some of the most difficult situations. And we can now reflect on his learnings for our own lives.


Aurelius had a nice clear filter, Is this mine to act on or mine to accept?


If it was within his control, he acted. If it wasn’t, eg. rumors, others’ opinions, he let it go.



You have power over your mind, not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.

Marcus Aurelius





Abraham Lincoln: Think Deeply. Lead Calmly. Decide Slowly.



In the autumn of 1862, Abraham Lincoln walked the halls of the White House alone. The Civil War was entering its second year. Casualties were mounting. Public opinion was divided. His cabinet was split. And the question of slavery, central but politically explosive, hung unresolved in the air.


Rather than respond with quick proclamations, Lincoln waited. He spent long nights reflecting, listening, and drafting what would become one of the most consequential documents in American history: the Emancipation Proclamation.


Lincoln wouldn’t release it until the time was right.

He believed major decisions required two forms of courage, the strength to act, and the restraint to wait until action would do the most good.


That moment came only after the Union’s narrow and bloody victory at Antietam. With the momentum turned, Lincoln issued the proclamation. It did not end slavery immediately, but it redefined the war, transforming it into a fight for human freedom as well as national unity.


Lincoln’s decision-making style was not impulsive. It was deliberate.


He often wrote unsent letters to manage his own emotions. He surrounded himself with critics, including rivals he had defeated in the election.


Recommended reading Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln

by Doris Kearns Goodwin (Brief overview: Library: Biography)


He invited dissent within his cabinet, listening fully before making his judgment. And once he did decide, he rarely reversed course.


His patient clarity helped steer the Union through its greatest crisis, and preserved the republic.


Lincoln would go on to guide the nation through another two and a half years of war before his assassination in April 1865. His legacy was not one of flawless decisions, but of thoughtful, principle-led leadership in an era defined by conflict.



Be sure you put your feet in the right place. Then stand firm.

Abraham Lincoln





Charlie Munger: Thinking Clearly in Complex Conditions



In the late 20th century, as markets grew more volatile and financial decisions more speculative, Charlie Munger developed a method for seeing through noise. While many investors chased trends, forecasts, and shortcuts, Munger focused on clear rational judgment.


Over decades, Munger assembled what he called a latticework of mental models. Fundamental principles drawn from a wide range of disciplines: economics, psychology, engineering, history, and biology. Each model offered a different lens for evaluating problems, reducing error, and avoiding self-deception.


He avoided trying to predict the future or falling for standard human biases.


He would think more deeply than most. When assessing an investment, he would always take his thinking multiple levels deeper than others.


What are the incentives behind this behavior?

What’s the second-order consequence of this decision?

What would happen if we’re wrong?


Recommended reading

Poor Charlie's Almanack

by Charlie Munger (Brief overview: Library: Finance & Investing)

To begin to understand the level at which Munger thought specifically read 'Talk Three, A Lesson on Elementary Worldy Wisdom', specifically his analysis of the Coca Cola company.


Munger built what he referred to as his Toolkit. For example, inversion, solving problems backward. Instead of asking “How do we succeed?” he would consider, “How could this fail?” He then filtered to avoid those outcomes.


Munger's work is there to be studied. Though he was a singular mind at making the complex simple, his work is deep and complex. But don't let that deter you, even a handful of learnings from Munger can change your life.



It’s not supposed to be easy. If it were easy, everyone would do it.

Charlie Munger





3 Actionable Practices for Making Decisions Under Uncertainty



We cannot fool ourselves, these three were all remarkable humans. We are each unlikely to have their abilities, but that should not stop us from learning at least their key lessons.



Practice 1. Control What You Can (Marcus Aurelius)


Aurelius knew that emotion is the first thing to betray you in chaos. So he trained his mind to separate the externals (fate, events, people) from the internals (choice, character, action).


To him, a good decision wasn’t about outcomes, it was about aligning with reason, courage, and justice in the moment of choice.



Practice 2: Decide Slowly, Act Boldly (Abraham Lincoln)


Lincoln’s genius wasn’t in speed, it was in disciplined patience. He invited critics into his cabinet. He wrote angry letters he never sent. He watched the public mood and waited for the moment when a controversial action could land with strength.


His version of decision-making looked like delay. But it was actually preparation.

When the moment came, he acted decisively, because he had already wrestled with the consequences in advance.



Practice 3: Use Models, Not Moods (Charlie Munger)


Munger’s approach is deeply unromantic. But very effective. He didn’t guess. He filtered. He inverts problems. He avoided the big downsides of life that were in his control. Stoically confronted those which he could not. And when large, and obvious (to him) opportunities came along, he dedicated himself to them.


He avoided the traps of urgency by building mental tools to slow himself down and consider thoughtfully.




Their Lessons Combined as One Method



Obviously, these men never met. They each lived centuries apart. But if you stitched their wisdom together into a process for making decisions under uncertainty, it might look like this:


  1. Slow down (Lincoln) – Don’t confuse speed with effectiveness.

  2. Zoom out (Munger) – Apply timeless principles across disciplines.

  3. Zoom in (Marcus) – Return to what’s in your hands right now.


Because ultimately, uncertainty isn’t an obstacle to good decisions. It’s the reason good decisions matter. You don’t make decisions after things become clear. You make decisions so that clarity can emerge.


And in this new world of Artificial Intelligence judgement, decision making and asking the right questions will be more important than ever.



You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.

Charlie Munger





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