Inversion: The Mental Model That Helps You Avoid Catastrophe and Make Smarter Decisions
- personal995
- Apr 24, 2025
- 5 min read
What if you thought like Carl Jacobi, Charlie Munger or Seneca in your everyday life?
Inversion is one of the simplest yet most useful mental models to help you do exactly that. Inversion encourages you to look at problems backwards, avoid costly errors, and uncover hidden truths.
By learning to invert, you can sidestep poor decisions, anticipate problems before they arise, and improve your chances of ending up where you actually want to be.
Not by asking, “How do I succeed?” but instead asking, “How could I fail?”
What's in this article?
What Is The Mental Model - Inversion?
Inversion is the practice of flipping a problem on its head. Asking what you don’t want to happen, or how you could fail. Instead of focusing solely on your desired outcome.
Where most thinking begins with goals and solutions, inversion starts with pitfalls and errors. It’s about solving problems backwards.
Instead of “How can I succeed?” ask, “What would guarantee failure?” Instead of “How can I be happy?” ask, “What would make me miserable?”
By avoiding stupidity, you get closer to wisdom.
“All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I never go there.” Charlie Munger
How Does Inversion Work?
Let’s take a common example: health.
Instead of asking: How do I get fit and healthy?”
Try inverting: “What habits would destroy my health over time?”
The answers become quite obvious:
Eat junk food constantly
Never exercise
Sleep poorly
Stress out daily
Ignore your body
Drink excessively
Smoke
Have a negative disposition
Simply avoiding these drastically raises your chances of good health.
This approach works across every aspect of life - relationships, finance, decision-making, business strategy, even happiness.
Some History on Inversion
Inversion as a mental model dates back thousands of years.
The Stoic philosophers, like Seneca and Marcus Aurelius, used a technique called premeditatio malorum, or “premeditation of evils.” They would actively imagine what could go wrong, so they could prepare their minds and plans accordingly.
This wasn't about pessimism, it was about clarity. By rehearsing worst-case scenarios, they strengthened their resilience, improved their decision-making, and avoided complacency. Inversion gave them the foresight to avoid preventable mistakes and the calm to face challenges when they arose.
“If you would not have a man flinch when the crisis comes, train him before it comes.” Seneca
In mathematics, the principle of inversion appears in geometry and calculus as a tool to solve difficult problems by reversing variables or perspectives. A 19th-century German mathematician, famously advised:
“Man muss immer umkehren.” ("You always have to turn back", now popularised as - "Invert, always invert.") Carl Jacobi
Jacobi believed that many complex problems became simpler—and more solvable—when viewed in reverse.
This approach later shaped the thinking of Charlie Munger, the American investor and polymath who integrated inversion deeply into his decision-making toolkit, applying it to everything from investing to partnerships to parenting.
Inversion in Investing and Risk Management
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on Inversion
Buffett and Munger didn’t build Berkshire Hathaway just by choosing good investments, they did so by avoiding bad ones, and by staying firmly within their circle of competence.
Their strategy often began with a mental filter: eliminating investment opportunities with high debt, poor management, no durable competitive advantage, rapidly changing technology, or excessive complexity. By identifying what to avoid first, they dramatically reduced the risk of catastrophic error.
“Rule No. 1 : Never lose money. Rule No. 2 : Never forget Rule No. 1.” Warren Buffett
Rather than getting swept up in hype or popular trends, they stuck to timeless principles. Their deep study of history showed how even the most brilliant minds could be undone by speculation. Sir Isaac Newton, for example, lost a significant portion of his fortune in the South Sea Bubble of the early 1700s, later remarking...
“I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Sir Isaac Newton
Buffett and Munger understood that in investing, it's not necessarily the smartest who win, but those who avoid the most mistakes. Thinking in terms of Inversion, what to avoid, what could go wrong, helps guard against overconfidence, groupthink, and blind optimism. It's a mental model that turns caution into a competitive edge.
Inversion Historical Example
NASA and Pre-Mortems
Before launching a major complex project, NASA conducts pre-mortems.
Instead of only asking “What should we do to succeed?” the team is asked to imagine: “It’s a year from now, and the mission or project has failed catastrophically. What went wrong?”
This reversal reveals overlooked flaws, complacencies, fatal assumptions, and preventable mistakes. It’s classic inversion in action.
Rather than assuming everything will go well, they assume failure, and can then work backwards to protect against it.
How to Use Inversion to Improve Your Everyday Life
Tip 1. Define Failure, Then Avoid It
Rather than only asking how to win, ask: “What would guarantee failure here?”
Want a good relationship?
List what would ruin one:
Constant criticism
Lack of communication
Selfishness
Resentment
Now avoid those.
Want to write a book?
List what would ensure you never finish it:
Wait for perfect inspiration
Procrastinate
Aim for perfection from the start
Invert and succeed.
Tip 2. Use Pre-Mortems for Big Decisions
Before launching a project, changing careers, or moving countries, run a pre-mortem.
Ask: “Assume this went terribly. What went wrong?”
This reveals blind spots. It forces you to stress-test your plans and prepare contingencies. It doesn’t mean you’re pessimistic, it means you’re realistic and setting up the odds in your favour.
Tip 3. Ask Negative Questions to Unlock Truth
When stuck, ask:
What am I pretending not to see?
What would I do if I were trying to sabotage this?
What habits are slowly destroying my time, energy, or clarity?
These unorthodox questions yield uncommonly useful answers.
To Summarise
By learning to think in terms of inversion, like Charlie Munger, Seneca, and Carl Jacobi, you unlock the ability to prevent failure before it happens, one of the rarest and most valuable skills in life.
You don’t need all the answers. You just need to know where the traps are, and then refuse to step in them.
What would your life look like if you consistently avoided the things that cause harm in your health, wealth, decisions, and relationships?
“Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.” Charlie Munger
Invert, always invert.
Member's Related Links & Recommended Next Reads:
Next Steps Guides:
Action Plan (Direction)
Focus (Potential)
Financial Management (Finance)
Investing (Finance)
Astuteness (Autonomy)
Judgement (Wisdom)
Mental Models in Math & Science (Mental Models & Tools)
Mathematics: Its Content, Methods and Meaning by A. D. Aleksandrov, A. N. Kolmogorov, and M. A. Lavrent'ev (Book Review: Library: Maths & Physics)
Letters from a Stoic by Lucius Annaeus Seneca (Book Review: Library: Philosophy)
The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life by Alice Schroeder (Book Review: Library: Biography)
Poor Charlie's Almanack by Charles T. Munger (Book Review: Library: Finance & Investing)
Poor Richard’s Almanack by Benjamin Franklin (Book Review: Library: Decision Making)
Not a member? Start Your Free 7 day Trial Now
All the best. Take care of yourself and each other.
